Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Both composes two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed here and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
